GRAISON
Cascade Intelligence Platform
What if the global financial system behaves like a living organism — and we could read its vital signs before a crisis?
The Human Body Analogy
Just as a doctor reads blood pressure, heart rate, and inflammation markers to diagnose illness, Graison reads 25 market signals mapped to organs of the financial body — each revealing a different dimension of systemic health.
🧠
Brain — Company Graph
10 Signals
Earnings surprises, guidance revisions, insider clustering, SEC filing anomalies, analyst revision waves, supply chain edges, revenue concentration, debt maturity walls, geographic revenue exposure.
🧬
Adrenal / Blood — Rates & Credit
4 Signals
FOMC surprise (adrenaline), credit spreads HY-IG (blood pressure), yield curve shape (body temperature), CPI/NFP/GDP surprise (metabolic rate).
🌍
Heart & Arteries — FX & Commodities
5 Signals
FX cascade (heart/arteries), commodity currency divergence (pulse irregularity), commodity price shocks (acid surge), CFTC positioning extremes (gut bacteria balance), cross-asset confirmation (peripheral vision).
💬
Lungs & Nerves — Social & Flow
6 Signals
Social velocity (breathing rate), Reddit saturation (exhaled CO2 — alpha gone), options flow anomaly (nerve impulses), short interest velocity (pain receptors), cross-asset pre-market (peripheral vision).
Signal Examples
| Signal | Body Part | What It Detects |
|---|
| FOMC Surprise | Adrenal glands | Rate decision vs futures-implied |
| Credit Spread | Blood pressure | HY vs IG spread movement |
| Insider Clustering | White blood cells | 3+ insiders buying within 14 days |
| FX Cascade | Heart / arteries | Currency moves hitting exposed companies |
| Options Flow | Nerve impulses | Unusual volume, blocks, GEX amplitude |
| Social Velocity | Breathing rate | Mention acceleration + who is talking |
| Reddit Saturation | Exhaled CO2 | Ticker on WSB front page = alpha gone |
| Yield Curve Shape | Body temperature | 2s10s + VIX term structure |
8 Structural Capabilities
Beyond signals, Graison has eight structural capabilities that mimic the body's deeper systems: Immune Memory (recognizing past crises), Inflammation Index (sector stress detection), Contagion Channels (dormant edges that activate during stress), Attention Metabolism (tracking what the market is ignoring), Contradiction Detection (actions vs. opinions), Pain Memory (traumatized sectors that overreact), Narrative Weather (atmospheric pressure of information), and Liquidity Tides (central bank balance sheet effects).
The Experiment
Can a system that treats markets as a living organism outperform traditional analysis?
Graison begins with 52% directional accuracy at launch, targeting 60-63% by month 12 — through a 7-step learning cycle that logs every forecast, scores outcomes at 7 timeframes, performs root-cause analysis on failures, and applies Bayesian updates with strict guardrails. 62% accuracy with calibrated confidence translates to 15-25% annual alpha.
17 Environmental Cycles
Graison tracks 17 recurring cycles that influence market behavior: tax-loss harvesting, tax refund season, turn-of-month flows, quarter-end window dressing, index rebalancing, options expiration / GEX, pre-holiday drift, Santa rally, Chinese New Year, Ramadan, summer liquidity drought, lunar phase, seasonal daylight / SAD, DST disruption, and more. Each cycle has a body analogy — from heartbeats (monthly flows) to hibernation (holiday effects).
Platform Status
Built & Live
Global Intelligence Map with 47 entities • Real-time market data via Yahoo Finance • Narrative Weather via GDELT • System Health with VIX & sector breadth • SEC 8-K Filing Monitor • Environmental Cycles Ticker • Company Profiles • Cascade Path Visualization • Immune Memory System • 3-tier AI routing (regex → Ollama → Claude Haiku) • Cross-asset Confirmation Signal • FRED integration (rates, FX, credit spreads, commodities)
Remaining to Build
Guidance Revision detection • Analyst Revision Clustering • Revenue Surprise (distinct) • Supply Chain 6-layer edges • Revenue Concentration from 10-K • Debt Maturity Wall from 10-K • Geographic Revenue from 10-K • FX Cascade mapping (FRED → entity) • Commodity Currency Divergence • Commodity Price Shocks (2-sigma) • Short Interest Velocity • Social Velocity & Reddit Saturation collectors • Options Flow Anomaly detector • Vessel tracking visual upgrades